Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.099169 0.113563 0.129211 0.147473 0.168187 0.190939 0.217812
2026-02-01 0.073959 0.091912 0.112967 0.139434 0.171770 0.209940 0.258370
2026-02-08 0.057608 0.077246 0.101953 0.135210 0.178693 0.233492 0.307661
2026-02-15 0.045085 0.065024 0.091850 0.130383 0.184095 0.256065 0.359530
2026-02-22 0.037798 0.058412 0.087955 0.133060 0.199806 0.294473 0.438360
2026-03-01 0.030133 0.049818 0.079819 0.128412 0.204575 0.318647 0.501477
2026-03-08 0.024458 0.043143 0.073348 0.125102 0.210762 0.345814 0.573321
2026-03-15 0.020013 0.037576 0.067622 0.121944 0.216635 0.373351 0.650033
2026-03-22 0.017449 0.034735 0.065906 0.125149 0.233481 0.420959 0.766492
2026-03-29 0.014810 0.031217 0.062367 0.124511 0.243535 0.458566 0.871577
2026-04-05 0.012912 0.028742 0.060302 0.126220 0.258097 0.506151 1.001320
2026-04-12 0.011382 0.026701 0.058702 0.128535 0.274155 0.558715 1.147809
2026-04-19 0.009357 0.023217 0.053655 0.123244 0.274865 0.583329 1.246825
2026-04-26 0.007568 0.019861 0.048235 0.116168 0.270731 0.597877 1.328450
2026-05-03 0.006324 0.017515 0.044607 0.112392 0.273102 0.626252 1.443325
2026-05-10 0.005270 0.015395 0.041079 0.108178 0.273780 0.651184 1.554860
2026-05-17 0.004707 0.014441 0.040221 0.110286 0.289661 0.712221 1.755999
2026-05-24 0.003955 0.012771 0.037184 0.106304 0.290071 0.737964 1.880162
2026-05-31 0.003371 0.011438 0.034765 0.103467 0.292877 0.769820 2.023723
2026-06-07 0.002883 0.010272 0.032560 0.100778 0.295602 0.801906 2.172743
2026-06-14 0.002631 0.009795 0.032250 0.103407 0.313172 0.873958 2.432818
2026-06-21 0.002320 0.009039 0.030940 0.102842 0.321751 0.924023 2.643386
2026-06-28 0.002098 0.008534 0.030311 0.104239 0.336279 0.992160 2.912001